Martin Sibileau

  • Blog
    The game changed on Thursday, June 23rd

    Read this article in pdf format: june-27-2011 Thursday, June 23rd, 2011 was a day of infamy: The International Energy Agency surprised the world by announcing that 60MM barrels of oil would be released over 30 days, as an answer to the disruption of oil supplies from Libya. Personally, we were slow to...

  • Blog
    No domino effect

    Please, click here to read this article in pdf format: march-23-2011   Since we last wrote a week ago, nothing of fundamental weight has changed (being this the main reason for our absence). It’s true, unlike last week, the markets now see the nuclear disaster in Japan contained and, perhaps too, something...

  • Blog
    The EU misses another opportunity

    Please, click here to read this article in pdf format: march-15-2011   We are back from the 2011 Austrians Scholars Conference, at the Ludwig Von Mises Institute, in the USA, where we were exposed to an incredible diversity of people and ideas. We highly recommend! During our time at the conference, two...

  • Blog
    From counterparty risk to systemic risk

    We want to write a few thoughts today, before we leave, on Wednesday, to attend the Austrian Scholars Conference, at the Ludwig Von Mises Institute, in the USA. If we are able, we will write from there our impressions on the different topics and views we encounter.   Our recent letters are...

  • Blog
    The ECB pushes Greece closer to the cliff

    Please, click here to read this article in pdf format: march-04-2011 There are times when we wish...

  • Blog
    The strong Euro and the unstable China

    In our last letter, we wrote that we were finding the market action inconsistent and that we wanted to walk to the sidelines. Well, we wanted, but the market didn’t let us, for we had to get back to stocks and gold, given the strength shown, albeit with less leverage. We were...

  • Blog
    Why gold and oil sold off yesterday

    Please, click here to read this article in pdf format: february-25-2011 It’s the end of the month and the animal spirits nervously want to take profits on a good February. Before we start today’s letter, we want to clarify our view with respect to the impact of the developments in the Middle...

  • Blog
    Three macro themes

    Please, click here to read this article in pdf format: february-22-2011 During the last two weeks, we...

  • Blog
    The way out

    Please, click here to read this article in pdf format: february-16-2011 Perhaps the most relevant factor shaping the action this week is the absence of a significant, market moving event. Investors seem to just be marking time. Every major decision is being postponed by policy makers and the drift higher in stocks...

  • Blog
    Adapting to passive money

    Please, click here to read this article in pdf format: february-11-2011 Just after our last letter on Monday, when we wrote that “…out of  China, we expect no news on rates or credit manipulation (i.e. reserve requirement ratios) until March…” we were surprised by a 25bps increase. The fact that the increase...