Martin Sibileau

  • Articles
    Another lesson in the law of unintended consequences

    Please, click here to read this article in pdf format: March 5 2012 Let’s start by confirming that...

  • Blog
    Chronicle of a break-up foretold

    Click on the link to read this article in pdf format:  February 19 2012 Today, we want to follow...

  • Blog
    Walking the fine line

    Please, click here to read this article in pdf format: February 6 2012 When we last wrote two...

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    An analytical framework for 2012

    Today, we think it would be important to leave the analysis of the latest news aside (including...

  • Blog
    Recap of 2011 and thoughts for 2012

    Please, click here to read this article in pdf format:december-22-2011 In the absence of further meaningful events, this will probably be our last letter of the year. Reflecting on our main macro thesis, things have played out the way we thought they would. Not from the beginning of 2011, but from the...

  • Blog
    The Fed already started QE3, but in the Eurozone

    Click here to read this article in pdf format: december-12-2011 By now, we assume our readers are...

  • Blog
    The detail nobody talks about

    Click here to read this article in pdf format: december-5-2011 Today we want to write a few comments on the news last week, of the IMF receiving loans from central banks from the Eurozone, to buy EU sovereign debt. We certainly don’t know if this will work out or not and by...

  • Blog
    Germany won!

    Please, click here to read this article in pdf format: december-1-2011 The coordinated action of central banks yesterday changed our short-term view. We had written in our last letter that we expected the fragile global financial system to collapse, with people taking matters into their own hands and, as Murray Rothbard once...

  • Blog
    People will take matters into their own hands

    Please, click here to read this article in pdf format: november-21-2011     At this point, we would like to take the time to summarize a few ideas and to provide more clarity on where we have stood and continue to stand. Revisiting what we wrote on May 2010, at the time...

  • Blog
    Update to our earlier letter

    Please, click here to read this article in pdf format: november-10-2011   The events triggered during the last 24 hours warrant a short update on our last letter. As we noted then, we could either assume that (a) the ECB (i.e. European Central Bank) holds the line with sovereign bond purchases or...

  • Blog
    It all now depends on the ECB

    Click here to read this article in pdf format:november-7-2011 The events that took place last week will be consequential. In our last letter, we made the case that even without further details, the measures at the EU summit only showed an impressive lack of common sense. Last week, EU leaders agreed on...

  • Blog
    Some thoughts on the EU summit

    Click here to read this article in pdf format: october-27-2011 As we write these comments, no concrete proposal for the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) has been presented after the summit that took place yesterday, among leaders of the European Union (EU). However, markets seem to consider as highly likely that three...

  • Blog
    The EU must not recapitalize banks

    Click here to read this article in pdf format: october-17-2011 We apologize for not having written sooner....

  • Blog
    Why Operation Twist is inflationary

    Click here to read this article in pdf format: september-27-2011 Since our last letter, we have witnessed...

  • Blog
    The Fed follows the Swiss National Bank

    Please, click here to read this article in pdf format: september-12-2011 Today’s comments will be brief. In...

  • Blog
    There is no Black Swan

    Please, click here to read this article in pdf format: september-5-2011 In our last letter, we showed that our view from May 2010 is fully developing (We had stated that eventually money supply in the Eurozone would be determined by the growth in the zone’s fiscal deficits). Also, the contagion from the...

  • Blog
    A View from the Trenches

    Please, click here to read this article in pdf format: august-19-2011   In light of the events yesterday, which in our view were mainly driven by fears of US dollar funding problems in the Eurozone banks, we thought it would be appropriate to reproduce our comments from June 4th, 2010, which anticipated...

  • Blog
    The beginning of the end

    Please, click here to read this article in pdf format: august-9-2011 Where do we start after two...

  • Blog
    On gold and a few dogmas

    Please, click here to read this article in pdf format: july-25-2011   Two weeks ago, we wrote that we had bought gold during its sell-off on June 30th /July 1st . We did so reluctantly. and sold it at the close of Friday 15th, consciously against that basic trading rule that says...

  • Blog
    Buy the product, avoid the producer

    Through our past letters we have turned more and more negative, we acknowledge. We’ll go through a...