Martin Sibileau

  • Articles
    An Austrian view on High Frequency Trading

    (republished from “A View from the Trenches“, August 12, 2012) In our last letter, we made some...

  • Articles
    Leverage, floating rate notes and high frequency trading

    (republished from “A View from the Trenches” : www.sibileau.com ) Click here to read this article in...

  • Articles
    No news on the monetary front

    (republished from “A View from the Trenches” (www.sibileau.com) Click here to read this article in pdf format: July 30 2012 Besides the 2012 Olympics (Go Canada!), last week, we had two main drivers of markets, at a macro level, of course. The first was the hope that there will be a final intervention...

  • Articles
    The age of circular reasoning

      Click here to read this article in pdf format: July 23 2012 (republished from “A View from...

  • Articles
    More of the same…

    Click here to read this article in pdf format: July 9 2012 Markets had a quiet week, with...

  • Articles
    Why the repo market will take us to the end of this crisis

    Click here to read this article in pdf format: July 2 2012 Today is a holiday in Canada....

  • Articles
    General market comments

    We are as deceived as you are with the policy decisions undertaken by the European Union (EU) and the US. As we muddle through their consequences, today we take a moment to offer a few thoughts… -On the EU: Banking Union, bailout funds and other tricks After the second LTRO (i.e. long-term...

  • Blog
    Is it possible to smoothly exit the Euro zone?

    Click here to read this article in pdf format: June 11 2012 As we write, the news is out that Spanish banks will get bailed out in the order of EUR100BN (also reported EUR125BN). We have repeatedly said that bailing out banks whose capital vanishes because they hold junk government debt is an...

  • Articles
    There is no straight path

    Click here to read this article in pdf format: June 4 2012   The loyal reader knows by now that we have been, perhaps since the start of our publication, expecting a dynamic like the one seen last Friday, namely, lower stock prices and a higher gold price. The last time we insisted...

  • Articles
    On the blanket guarantee for Euro deposits

    Click here to read this article in pdf format: May 29 2012 In our last letter, we dealt...

  • Articles
    Liquidity…that elephant in the room

    (Click here: May 21 2012 , to read this article in pdf format) According to Wikipedia, the expression “Elephant...

  • Articles
    Update to our analytic framework for 2012

    On January 23rd, we put forth a framework to guide us through the macroeconomic challenges of 2012....

  • Articles
    The path from asset inflation to generalized inflation

    M. Hollande has won the French presidency and fear is now widespread, that with the anti-bailout message...

  • Blog
    Growth Pact? What Growth Pact?

    If we have to summarize what drove the action last week, we will say it was the...

  • Blog
    Remembering Von Hayek

    Because simplicity is a virtue, we decided to skip a week and write our comments today. Why?...

  • Articles
    We’re getting closer…

    As Easter approached, we began to see a timid sell off in US stocks (but not so timid in Europe or Canada), in corporate debt, and in Treasuries. Treasuries later in the week rallied, but if you ask, we would see them still in a downtrend. This downtrend began with the implementation...

  • Articles
    Reflections from an Austrian observer

    Last week we had suggested that the strength of the Euro (by strength, we mean a Euro above $1,30) could be based on the fact that the liquidity lines extended by the European Central Bank were collateralized. As the sovereign risk of Spain,Italy and Portugal had deteriorated, so had the value of...

  • Articles
    If new Euros come only from collateral, would the Eurozone not be better off under the gold standard?

    Please, click here to read this article in pdf format: March 25 2012 During the past week, we...

  • Articles
    On gold, stocks, financial repression and the KreditAnstalt of 1931

    Please, click here to read this article in pdf format: March 18 2012 We are back from Washington DC and realize that we could choose different titles for today’s letter. Let’s try a few… Title No.1: “The market proved us wrong” Indeed, we have been, and continue to be, long term gold bulls....

  • Articles
    The tide turned against the EMU

    On Friday, out of the office and away from the screens (we are currently visiting the US capital), we were spared the enormous volatility in gold. Gold tried to break through the lows made since a public institution liquidated bullion on Februrary 29th but closed making a higher high (since the sell-off, of...